Consumer insights and market intelligence firm Brightfield Group focuses on the potential effects of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation of CBD—or the possible lack thereof—in a new mid-year report titled, “CBD: FDA Impact & The Path Forward.”

In 2022, Brightfield forecasts that the U.S. hemp-derived CBD market will reach $5 billion in retail sales, without FDA involvement this year, according to the report.

If the FDA begins regulating CBD by 2024, retail sales of the product could reach $11 billion in 2027, according to Brightfield, per the report. Without FDA regulations, the data company expects that 2027 figure to be more than $6 billion.

The increase in sales that Brightfield predicts if FDA guidance occurs would be “driven by accelerated growth of ingestible products like capsules and gummies as well as increased acceptance by mainstream retailers,” according to the report.

And with a 2024 start for FDA guidance, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the market for the years 2022 to 2027 could reach more than 40% for mass merchandiser and club as well as grocery distribution channels, Brightfield states.

If there is no FDA regulation, Brightfield predicts the highest CAGR percentages for those years to be for mass merchandisers and club, and pharmacy, channels—but with a CAGR under 10%.

Download the report here.

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